HIGH-RESOLUTION CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTIONS FOR THE CITY OF EDMONTON: MODELLING EXTREME EVENTS & UNCERTAINTY

Category: 2019, CitiesIPCC Legacy Research Grant Program, Climate, Current, Grant

GRANTEE

University of Regina Prairie Adaptation Research Collaborative

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With funding from the CitiesIPCC Legacy Research Grant Program, this research will provide the City of Edmonton with projections of future climate for key variables at a municipal scale.  

The Prairie Adaptation Research Collaborative has developed a 900-year climate record for Alberta, and is able to compare climate model projections to natural variability. These model projections will determine the extent to which the future climate of Edmonton will be outside the range of natural climate cycles. 

From a range of future projections, the researchers will identify the climate risks to municipal infrastructure and public services specific to Edmonton in terms of the probability and consequences of exceeding critical thresholds in weather and water variables. They will provide guidelines for translating climate predictions and their uncertainty for engineering and planning applications. They will also analyze the sources (i.e., models, emission scenarios and natural variability) to explain differences among climate projections. 

By dynamically downscaling global models to the Edmonton scale, the researchers can evaluate their confidence in the climate projections and quantify uncertainties to support practical policy solutions and municipal interventions. This will assist city planners, engineers, managers and policy makers in their decision-making in an uncertain future to achieve a resilient community.

 

Researchers