With funding from the CitiesIPCC Legacy Research Grant Program, this research provided the City of Edmonton with projections of future climate for key variables at a municipal scale.  

The Prairie Adaptation Research Collaborative has developed a 900-year climate record for Alberta, and is able to compare climate model projections to natural variability. These model projections determined the extent to which the future climate of Edmonton will be outside the range of natural climate cycles. 

From a range of future projections, the researchers identified the climate risks to municipal infrastructure and public services specific to Edmonton in terms of the probability and consequences of exceeding critical thresholds in weather and water variables. They provided guidelines for translating climate predictions and their uncertainty for engineering and planning applications. They also analyzed the sources (i.e., models, emission scenarios and natural variability) to explain differences among climate projections. 

By dynamically downscaling global models to the Edmonton scale, the researchers evaluated their confidence in the climate projections and quantify uncertainties to support practical policy solutions and municipal interventions. This will assist city planners, engineers, managers and policy makers in their decision-making in an uncertain future to achieve a resilient community. 

RESEARCHERS

• David Sauchyn, PhD, PGeo, Professor, Department of Geography & Environmental Studies and Director, Prairie Adaptation Research Collaborative

• Samantha Kerr, Term Lecturer, Department of Geography & Environmental Studies

• Yuliya Andreichuk, Research Associate, Prairie Adaptation Research Collaborative